- *COVID-19 Projections
Christopher J.L. Murray, Chair and Professor of Health Metrics Sciences and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months.
The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures. Includes link to methods and article.
- *Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, Edward Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch.
Science 14 Apr 2020
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 from time series data from the USA to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.
- *Simulating COVID Spread in College Setting
Lilah Burke, Inside Higher Ed, June 22, 2020
New research suggests that for a large campus dealing with COVID-19, accurate testing and limits on class size and social contact may be of critical importance.
- Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Tomas Pueyo, Medium.com, Mar 10/13, 2020
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When
This article uses modeling to relate the number of reported cases and deaths to the size of the underlying epidemic. It reminds me of an article (Am J Epidemiol) in the early years of the HIV epidemic, where there was a similar disjunction between observed and underlying infections, though the lag was in years, rather than days.
- COVID-19 Doubling-Time Model and Projections
Dan Reichart, Nick Konz, Adam Trotter; UNC Department of Physics and Astronomy; updated 4/4/2020
The point of this page is to model the COVID-19 doubling time. This is the time that it takes for twice as many people to become infected with the virus. In early March, the doubling time was approximately 2 days in the United States. At this doubling rate, it would have taken only 40 days for nearly everyone in the United States to become infected.
- Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults
Denaxas, Spiros & Hemingway, Harry & Shallcross, Laura & Noursadeghi, Mahdad et al. (2020). Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults. 10.13140/RG.2.2.36151.27047.
- Estimation in emerging epidemics: biases and remedies
Tom Britton and Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 16 Jan 2019
We study inference problems during the emerging phase of an outbreak, and point out potential sources of bias, with emphasis on: contact tracing backwards in time, replacing generation times by serial intervals, multiple potential infectors and censoring effects amplified by exponential growth.
- Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, May 6, 2021 - described in the May 7th article from the Daily Kos, "Study indicates that COVID-19 deaths in the United States are actually over 900,000"
- Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months
Christopher Murray, March 26, 2020. In addition to ~80,000 deaths from COVID-19, the US epidemic will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care, with peak volumes in mid/late April even with social distancing measures in all states, maintained throughout the epidemic.
- High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, and Ruian Ke; Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul
We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
- Mathematics of life and death: How disease models shape national shutdowns and other pandemic policies
Martin Enserink, Kai Kupferschmidt, Science,Mar. 25, 2020
- Study indicates that COVID-19 deaths in the United States are actually over 900,000
Reporting on the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation study (see above, "Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19")
- What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections
Liz Essley Whyte, Shots, NPR, April 21, 2020
Federal health officials estimated in early April that more than 300,000 Americans could die from COVID-19 if all social distancing measures are abandoned, and later estimates pushed the possible death toll even higher, according to documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity. Some outside experts say even that grim outlook may be too optimistic.
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