University of North Carolina School of Public Health Department of Epidemiology Fundamentals of Epidemiology (EPID 168) Victor J. Schoenbach and Wayne D. Rosamond Fall 1996 Final Exam (Tuesday 10 Dec 1996) This examination is based on Per-Gunnar Persson, Anders Ahlbom, Goran Hellers. Diet and inflamatory bowel disease: a case-control study. Epidemiology 1992;3:47-52. NOTE: For simplicity, ignore the requirement that this study was restricted to those persons with a telephone number. 1. Which of the following best describes the primary objective of this study? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. To test the hypothesis that persons with inflammatory bowel disease are more likely to have been exposed to certain dietary factors than those without inflammatory bowel disease. B. To test the hypothesis that the risk of having inflammatory bowel disease given that you have certain dietary exposures is greater than the risk of not having inflammatory bowel disease. C. To test the hypothesis that the increase in inflammatory bowel disease in the population is attributed to certain dietary exposures. D. To test the hypothesis that the average consumption of certain dietary factors increases as the proportion of a group of people with inflammatory bowel disease increases. 2. Designation as a case of ulcerative colitis was based on which of the following classification models. (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Manifestational criteria B. Causal criteria C. Both manifestational and causal criteria D. Neither 3. Medical records were used to validate the hospital diagnoses of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. By using this validation process instead of relying on hospital discharges coding alone, the authors are reducing which of the following sources of error? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Selection bias B. Prevalence-incidence bias C. Information bias D. Surveillance bias _ -2- 4. Controls were selected as a random sample using the population register of Stockholm County Council. Which of the following best describes the primary purpose of using a random sample in this study? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Maximize generalizability by obtaining a statistically representative sample. B. Select a control group that was as similar as possible to the case group except for dietary exposures. C. Provide an estimate of the dietary exposure in the source population from which the cases arose. D. Select a control group with dietary habits similar to those in the population of cases. 5. Dietary exposures were assessed using a questionnaire with Òretrospective questions aimed at a period of time 5 years in the pastÓ (page 48). Which of the following situations of misclassification would make sucrose appear more harmful than it really was? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Controls underreported sucrose intake but cases did not. B. Cases underreported sucrose intake but controls did not. C. Both cases and controls underreported sucrose intake. D. Both cases and controls overreport sucrose intake. 6. Suppose that cases excluded due to administrative delay problems were more likely to have daily soft drink exposure than less than daily. Which of the following best describes the impact this would have on the odds ratio presented in Table 3? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Without the exclusion the odds ratio would be closer to the null. B. Without the exclusion the odds ratio would be larger. C. The exclusion did not affect the odds ratio. D. Cannot determine on the basis of this information. 7. Diagnoses of disease were verified in this study. Define validity and compare and contrast this concept with reliability. (4 pts) 8. This study uses a case control design with a population based control group. Which of the following, in general, is a strength of this design. (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Allows examination of rare diseases. B. Allows examination of rare exposures. C. Good for establishing temporality. D. Good for equalizing on known and unknown confounders. _ -3- 9. Items on the food frequency questionnaire were mostly in a format with six response options that ranged from twice per day or more often to less frequently than once every 2 weeks (pg 48). In deriving values for daily energy intake, the authors treated the food frequency responses as which level of measurement? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Nominal B. Ordinal C. Interval D. Ratio 10. Control for age in the analyses presented in Table 2 was accomplished through which of the following methods? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Stratified analysis plus matching. B. Matching plus mathematical modeling. C. Restriction without stratification D. Mathematical modeling and stratification. 11. Based on the data presented in Table 2, is ulcerative colitis associated with fat intake among men? Give a brief statement to support your answer. (4 pts) 12. The authors state on page 49 that after controlling for smoking, the relative risk for CrohnÕs disease among men was 1.9 for a high consumption of sucrose and 0.7 for a high consumption of fiber. Briefly explain why based on these data the authors state that smoking did not confound these associations. (3 pts) 13. The data presented in Table 3 indicate that Crohn's disease is associated with the consumption of fast foods. Suppose that when stratified by educational attainment, the resulting data were as follows: Educational attainment High Low Controls Cases Controls Cases Fast foods 1+ times/wk 12 10 8 14 None 150 100 135 28 a. Calculate the crude and stratum-specific odds ratios. (3 pts) b. Is this association between fast food and CrohnÕs disease confounded by education level? Quantify and briefly explain your answer. (3 pts) c. Briefly explain in 2 sentences or a diagram how education might fit into a conceptual model consisting of fast food, education, and risk of Crohn's disease. (3 pts) _ -4- 14. In the discussion (page 50), the authors state that Òif the change in diet is the same in cases as in controls, then the relative risk estimates would be biased toward unityÓ. This is an example of which of the following? (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. Non differential misclassification bias B. Non differential selection bias C. Differential information bias D. Differential misclassification bias 15. This articles does not present p-values yet reports 95% confidence intervals for all odds ratios. Which of the following best describes what information a confidence interval conveys that a p-value does not. (Choose one best answer) (3 pts) A. A confidence interval puts the observed point estimate in the context of randomness. B. A confidence interval provides information on the precision of the point estimate. C. A confidence interval includes an estimate of the statistical power of the study. D. A confidence interval reflects the clinical significance of the point estimate. 16. The study describes the association of consumption of Muesli-type breakfast cereal and Crohn's disease (Table 3). Briefly state and evaluate the strength of the numerical evidence for the association between Muesli-type breakfast cereals and Crohn's disease. (3 pts) 17. Briefly present the evidence for or against the role of fiber as a confounder of the association of sucrose intake and CrohnÕs disease. (3 pts) 18. Suppose a follow-up to this study was done to estimate the rate (per 10,000 person years) of ulcerative colitis among a large sample in the Swedish population. The table below summarizes the results. Fast food intake Soft drink intake 2/week None Daily 18.0 9.1 Less frequently 6.8 3.7 a. Which model for the joint effect of these two food items, the additive model or the multiplicative model, better fits the data? Your answer should give the formula for each model and show how to evaluate it with the above data. (5 pts) b. Do these data, assuming that they accurately reflect causal effects, indicate a synergistic effect from a public health perspective? Justify your answer and state an appropriate public health implication if any. (2 pts) _ -5- 19. This study did not differentiate between caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee. Using the data presented in Table 4 and applying the assumptions below, calculate the odds ratio (heavy versus no use) associated with caffeinated coffee consumption and determine if it is protective against ulcerative colitis. Describe in 2 sentences or less the interpretation of this new odds ratio, ignoring issues of random error. (4 pts) Assumptions: 1. 20% of the heavy coffee drinkers ( 3 cups per day) among cases drink only decaffeinated coffee. 2. 90% of heavy coffee drinkers among controls drink only decaffeinated coffee. 20. Which of the following variables was NOT in the multiple logistic model that was used to estimate the relative risk for sucrose intake in relation to ulcerative colitis in women? (Choose best answer) (3 pts) A. Age B. Gender C. Total energy intake D. Ulcerative colitis 21. In the multiple logistic model that yielded the relative risk estimate of 0.7 for Ulcerative colitis in relation to daily vegetable consumption (Table 4), what was the value of the coefficient for the vegetable consumption variable assuming that it was coded as 1=daily, 0=less frequently? Write the conversion equation of coefficient to relative risk estimate. (3 pts) 22. Assume that the population of Stockholm County in the age range covered by this study was 1,000,000 in 1980 and remained constant throughout the decade. What was the average annual incidence of hospital-diagnosed Crohn's disease during that period regardless of when their medical record became available? (3 pts) 23. Using the data in Table 2, for which of the following two associations is there more of an indication of confounding by age and total energy intake in WOMEN? Support your answer with relevant data and/or computations. (3 pts) a. Crohn's disease and sucrose intake (highest versus lowest level) b. Crohn's disease and disaccharide intake (highest versus lowest level) 24. Briefly state one major strength and one major limitation of this study (2 pts) _ -6- 25. List two Bradford Hill criteria for evaluating whether dietary sucrose intake is causally related to inflammatory bowel disease. Evaluate each using specific facts from the article. (4 pts) 26. Which of the following statements about the data in Tables 1 and 2 are TRUE and which are FALSE (answer TRUE or FALSE for each statement). (2 pts each) a. In women, the rate of (hospitalized) ulcerative colitis was higher than that of (hospitalized) Crohn's disease. b. The similarity in age distribution between the case groups and controls indicates that the rates of these disease are fairly uniform between the ages of 15 and 79 years. c. Reporting of dietary intake by the Crohn's disease cases involved recall over longer periods of time, on the average, than was the case for the ulcerative colitis cases. d. The proportion of controls with high dietary fat intake was higher for men than for women. 27. A Swedish friend of yours who lives in Stockhom has an indentical twin sister who is anything but identical in terms of her diet. Your friend, as other health conscious Swedes, avoids fast foods and soft drinks, and eats whole grain bread and muesli-type cereals daily. Her twin sister, and many Swedes, often consumes fast foods and soft drinks, but never touches whole grain bread or muesli. Your friend comes to visit with you over the holidays, and while you are sleeping late one morning she comes across your class notes from EPID 168. At breakfast, where she has been busily scribbling on her napkin, she asks you this question. "Suppose that fast foods, soft drinks, whole grain bread, and muesli- type cereal affect Crohn's disease risk independently, and that I can ignore other risk factors. Suppose also that the excess risks are additive. Is my twin sister's risk of Crohn's disease 10 times my own?" She shows you how she used the information in Table 3 to obtain that estimate: (3.4 - 1) + (2.8 - 1) + ((1/0.4) - 1) + ((1/0.2) - 1) + 1 = 10.7 She goes on to explain "(3.4 -1) is the excess risk from fast foods, and ((1/0.4) - 1) is the excess risk from eating bread that is not whole grain." Even though you're not quite fully awake, you feel justifiable pride in your command of epidemiologic concepts and explain to her the one big mistake she has made. You say, " . . . ". Write a brief statement of what you would say. (4 pts) Rosemond/Schoenbach, 12/96, edited 11/11/97 epid168 \ exams 1996 Final exam